Value in Fighting For Limped Pots

I somehow came across this website (http://www.parttimepoker.com/) today with a strategy section. The first article I read had some questionable advice for novice players about dealing with LAGs OOP. The authors advice was 1) move tables, or 2) move seats, or 3) play back. I'm totally fine with the first two. The 3rd is pretty treacherous advice for a novice player considering the LAG is playing that style in large part to get this exact reaction to induce an eventual expensive mistake. I would not ever advise an inexperienced player to adjust by making moves OOP against a LAG unless I wanted them to go broke.

In the next article, another player talked a bit about playing in 3bet pots from the BU when 3bet by the blinds. He had some pretty good points early, although his example might not have been the best. He called the 3bet on the BU with 46s, flop was J65, opponent cbet, and he jammed saying that you're often ahead and when behind, you have a draw to 5 outs. I really don't think I like his reasons, and I'm not sure if I like or don't like how the hand was played. However, I do know that for a basic strategy article, his example wasn't a very good one.

Finally, I read the 3rd article and find points that I think are just blatantly wrong. It's a section from Bill Vosti's ebook titled "Playing limped pots in 6max no limit games." I disagreed with several points and think it is more enforcing break-even to marginally winning play than play that maximizes value and crushes levels. I'll break it down point-by-point:

• "We’re just not used to limping and dealing with hands like top pair no kicker in a small pot. I believe the solution is very simple: just don’t worry about them very much. There’s not much value to be made from winning limped pots. You’ll usually be in the SB or BB in these pots and you should only really get involved if you flop a very big hand."

That actually hurts to read, especially the "there's not much value made from winning limped pots" comment. It's my opinion that there is a TON of easy value to get from limped pots. I say it is my opinion because I'm not going to provide the data that proves it wrong, but certainly think I could produce it if I needed to. This is the same thinking that was common several years ago when people were not stealing blinds in cash games. They said "It's not a tournament. What difference does 1.5bbs make? Why get involved with a marginal hand just for that!" I'm guilty of that thinking too when I just started learning NL. But this was not the opinion of the biggest winning players. While others were not stealing and giving up the blinds, they were busy cashing in. The truth is, it doesn't seem like much, but generally a player who is doing very well to crushing a level has a win rate of 5bbs+ per 100 hands. By stealing the blinds successfully once, 1.5bbs, you've essentially accomplished 30% of that win rate in one hand! Since two random hands in the blinds are likely to be weak, stealing often succeeds. People noticed, realized how profitable and important it really was, and now it is common knowledge among most players.

Even this author knows that, which makes it surprising and yet not so, to be saying that. While everyone knows about how picking up the blinds in profitable, it seems like very few apply that to a similar situation: limped pots. It just hasn't caught on as well yet. While you may be OOP in a limped pot, one thing is fairly certain: players mostly have marginal hands or nothing at all. They usually have hands that can not stand up to much pressure. On top of that, now there is even more than 1.5bbs in the pot. There may be 100-150% more. If there are 3bbs in the pot, it may not seem worthwhile to pick up, but as seen with the blinds, it definitely is. Picking up these small pots will increase your win rate as well as substantially add up over the long term.

And the best thing is that the majority of players use the same thinking that the author does: "it's a limped pot, it's just not worth getting involved without a very big hand." That's license to steal. Free money. Don't pass it up, especially in todays games where people are generally playing better. Every profitable situation counts. Sometimes they might have a strong hand and they will definitely let you know when they do. Sometimes the BB picks up AA when you try to steal from the BU. That doesn't make stealing unprofitable. That's because most of the time you're going to be picking up the dead money and that is going to add up.

• "When you flop top pair, no kicker, it’s only worth one bet at most. K3 on a KQ8 flop is a very bad hand. If there are 2 or more players, I often won’t even put a dime in the pot."

Again, missing value. It's true sometimes it's not worth a bet at all. But against some opponents, TP is going to be ahead if they're calling you with 2nd pair, 3rd pair, draws, etc. Getting in 2 or sometimes even 3 valuebets depending on the situation and player is absolutely fine and essential to maximizing EV. So while this advice is true sometimes, it's not nearly accurate enough to use as a "guideline".

• "When the SB open completes and you check the BB and he checks to you on the flop, it’s OK to fire out a small bet to take the pot. Otherwise, never bet into a limped pot with nothing."

Sigh. It doesn't matter what we have. All that matters is what everyone else has. If it's nothing or something marginal that they will fold, it's a perfect time for a bluff. Betting only with some sort of hand is just passing up on too much dead money. We aren't playing our cards, we're playing the situation.

Overall, this is great advice if you want to be a break-even to marginally winning player. This play seems so weak-tight that the mental picture of the author that I have is someone with gray hair and I'd be highly surprised if they were crushing anything online rather than just grinding out a small win rate.

The best players will always make the most money, and one of the ways they do it is by finding profit in situations other players pass on and maximizing the amount of value they get. Sometimes it's thin value that other players are too timid to try for. But that's why there are only a few top players among millions of others. If a situation can be +EV, even small EV, we should work to learn how to best navigate it, rather than writing it off for others to pick up.