I didn't get as much time to think about it as I wanted. I didn't wake up until 1:30 today. Apparently, that's pretty standard for players, but in this instance it's just due to me still being on Vegas time from a few days ago.
In the game tonight, I'm going to experiment with some 3betting. It will primarily be just 3betting a wider value range. I may not get too many opportunities because the game is so passive. When a player raises, he/she usually has something very strong. But there may be a people who open a bit wider and will always call the 3bet to see the flop so hopefully I will get a seat on their left. This is also the reason I can't 3bet light; if they open, they'll almost always call. To do so profitably would mean they will check/fold the flop with a high frequency, which they may, but there will also often be one or several cold callers. I may leave experimenting with light 3bets to another session, but I don't expect it to be too common or profitable of a strategy.
Isolating is major in weak games. The problem in these ultra loose games is that limpers often call. Everyone wants to see the flop before they fold. They absolutely can't stand to fold what might have been a set, 2 pair, eventual straight, or flush. It's a huge area of grief for them and there isn't a table anywhere that I set down at and not hear someone hit the table because they folded too soon, tell me about how they folded 84 pre-flop but would have hit trips on the River, or let the whole table know they'd have hit a straight. They seem especially frustrated when they would have hit the flop hard, even though there was a raise and a re-raise before them and they folded K3o. So trying to isolate a single player and play post-flop with them can have some random results. I might get 4 callers, even when raising big. I might get a cold-caller in front of me and everyone including the intended target folds. It definitely doesn't seem as easy as tighter games where only 1 or 2 people limp and everyone else, but the limpers, fold to a raise. Still, there's TONS of value in isolating in general and it is certainly worth experimenting with to find the best times and ways to do it in this type of multi-way no fold'em hold'em game. Maybe raising very large or 3betting are key....
I'll definitely be looking to fight a bit harder for orphaned pots. There's good value there with all the limpers/limp-callers and people will often just give them up with little or nothing. It may be small, but it adds up significantly as well as providing a safe, cheap way to creap an aggressive or bluffy image. Often people will not discern the difference when you get caught bluffing with smaller bets at a little pot a few times and the one time you are making big bets and they have a little something. They'll still have the thought of "He bluffs a lot, he could be bluffing" in their thoughts, even though you've never bluffed in this way before.
Finally, I'd like to look for big +EV bluffs via 2nd/3rd barrels. Conventional wisdom says this is very bad and there's certainly some truth in that. You definitely want to bring your head gear because it could end messy. It's also not really necessary to do it in order for image and to get paid off later when you bet big on 3 streets with a set+ because they will often pay you off with anything decent. But I still there is some extra value that can be created by essentially creating more dead money that a future bet will reap. There ranges are often wide and marginal when they call the flop and even the turn.
While they are loose, however, they aren't complete droolers [Disclaimer: If there is a drooler in the pot, this should be avoided]. They want to see cards and not fold too early. They want to make sure they aren't getting bluffed or folding the best hand. But they aren't crazy either. They know the value of money and are embarrassed if they call and lose their whole stack with something ridiculous. Given enough pressure, they will fold marginal hands in a growing pot. So if I run into a situation HU or 3way where I can pretty strongly put the other player/s on marginal holdings (draws, 2nd pairs, very weak TPs), and the board texture is good for it, I may look to build the pot by 2nd barreling good Turn cards and then 3rd barreling good River cards. This should be especially valuable if I can accurately put them on a draw and build the pot on the flop/turn and take it down when the draw whiffs on the River with little hand at all. I will certainly be much more hesitant and require a very scary board texture if I think TP might make up a good portion of their range. I have a lot of work to do here, but I thinking getting very good at identifying these situations could heavily increase my winrate on top of the basic ABC strategy that works in these games.
I also need to practice more in situations where you should either bet 1 street or all 3 streets. There are situations where 2nd barreling and shutting down is very good, and then there are situations where 2nd barreling and never 3rd barreling is spew. If you decide to not shut down and instead 2nd barrel, you must often 3rd barrel to make the 2nd barrel good. Just as a simple example, say we have 34s, the flop is 672hh. We cbet and get called by a loose player. The Turn is a T. We decide to barrel the over and he calls. Shutting down on many River cards, especially more overs/non-straight or flush completing cards, is often going to make the 2nd barrel bad and give up a +EV river bluff. That's because of his range. He very often has a hand like 6x, 7x or a straight or flush draw. If he has a hand like 78, then he called the flop with TP, caught a gutshot on the turn, and wants to see the river where he will fold if beaten. He may have a flush draw that he chased to the river and you have no showdown value with 4-high. A whole lot of his range will be weak hands that he will call 2 streets with and fold on the River. So by 2nd barreling and not 3rd barreling, you are wasting money with the 2nd barrel and passing up on a big pot by not pulling the trigger on the River. You should often just bet the flop and give up if you think a 2nd/3rd barrel will not be profitable because he has a good hand, or you should fire all 3 streets.
Incidently, by betting big on the Turn, you are creating a lot of dead money to pick up on the River. This will significantly add to win rate when done right, and detract when done wrong, so it's important that I work on getting better at this. Also, people HATE folding the best hand in big pots, so showing a bluff here should be incredibly good for you when you have a real hand. They will definitely not forget this hand and be much less willing to fold what might be the best hand again in a future pot together.
I think 80% of my play will be basic ABC strategy. Good situations just don't come up often enough in these games. But by showing just a single big bluff, I think that's all it will take to get huge action on good hands. I will also play a little more aggressively to pick up dead money, and that may get me paid off a little lighter as they get more suspicious. This means that as the night goes on, I can probably valuebet thinner and thinner.
The game starts in a few hours. I don't hope to win, just to play well and run into these situations often enough to get some feedback and learn something. As a recap, the goals are:
- Play an ABC+ strategy
- Fight more for orphaned pots
- Experiment with isolating
- Experiment with 3betting for value wider
- Look for +EV 2nd/3rd barrel spots
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