Live Players Love Their "Pot Odds"

Last night I had a small breakthrough, something that's been on the surface and I've known, but it really hit home.

My standard raise in Alan's game is 10-12xbb. This frequently gets comments like "10 into a 4 pot?!?!", "He must have AA", and other nonsense. But then they all call as they always do wherever I play. It's exactly the reason you can flex your bet sizes vs weak players and play very exploitably: They just aren't going to exploit you well. I frequently build the biggest pots in that game because even though I "must have AA", I'll get 6-8 callers, making it a 60-80 pot on the flop.

Well, last night my pre-flop raise size grew from 10 to 14bbs. The first time I did it, Snoop (who's max raise is usually 7 even with AA) says "WHY would you ever bet that much, no ones going to call!!!" The calling station on my left quickly calls and then something interesting happens, Snoop calls.

Me: Wait. What? Now that doesn't make sense. You said no one is going to call, AND THEN YOU CALL!
Snoop: Yeah, but then I got "pot odds" now.

Four more players proceeded to call this raise that "no one was going to call."

The truth is that live/weak players don't understand pot odds at all. That's easy to realize and I've always known it, but never really thought about exactly what their thought process is regarding pot odds and how to exploit that. Pot odds has two elements: Pot size AND bet size. Using the two, you can get a ratio like 2:1 and with that you can compare it to the odds of your hand improving to the best and see if you are getting the correct immediate price to continue.

The important thing I learned is that they only factor in the first, pot size. "Pot odds" for these players is simply synonymous and interchangeable with "the pot is big."

This works for them because it helps them to justify calling, especially preflop, which is what they love to do: call too much. It's almost as if they tell themselves "Remember, as long as you say pot odds first, you can make the call." It reminds me of Jimbo and his method to bypass hunting regulations:

Jimbo: Just remember kid, always yell "It's coming right for us!" before you start shooting.

This seems consistent among many, many live players. It's like one guy read a book and it spread like rumors spread, the result is always horribly twisted from its original form as each person adds or takes away a little. Or maybe they just watch WSOP reruns, heard it there, heard it at the table, and inferred that the meaning was that the pot is big and they can call. Or may it's just two words that make them feel ok about not folding when they know they should.

Regardless, this a VERY good thing. Immediately, I can think of a couple ways to exploit this:

• Continue raising large. If I get one caller, my chances drastically increase for getting two or more, especially if players who like to call for "pot odds" have yet to act. It looks like it can take as few as one caller for this to happen. Then a cascade effect occurs where more and more people call until the logic is "6 people called, now I HAVE to call with my A5o"

• Raise especially large if there is a calling station or two next to my left and "pot odds" players are left to act afterward. If the a station calls, it's almost certainly going to be at least 3-way. If a couple call, it could be 4 or 5-way. I can use this to get ridiculous value on big hands preflop.

"Pot odds" explains the cascade effect of weak players calling with bad hands that they are never getting the correct odds to call with.

I need a special name for it as to not get it confused with real pot odds. I'll be thinking about further ways to exploit this such as 3betting preflop, adjusting bet sizes depending on positions of these players, etc during the week.


P.S. Later I raised to 14 again with AA after getting called 6-ways previously and Snoop called me "Donkey Kong" talking to Dave. I don't know who's the teacher and who's the student, but somebody's shoveling bullshit and the other is eating it up. Those guys are completely oblivious to how much they misunderstand poker. It's odd that he will see me get called in 6 spots raising to 14 and yet he'll still not learn from it and say "Hey, he got a lot of money in the pot that way, I can copy that and do the same" but he still only raises to 7 or 8. Oh well, Snoop doesn't play bad, he just runs bad all the time as he says... Ignorance is bliss.